Science News: Autism & Vaccines, Soda & Cancer

Two big science stories to address:

1) Last week The Lancet (impact factor 28.4; that’s big) retracted a controversial 1998 article linking MMR vaccinations to the onset of autism after almost 80% of the original authors wrote letters to the journal requesting a retraction.

2) Today in Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention there was a study involving 60,500 Chinese and they discovered a link between drinking as little as two (2) cans of soda a week and 80% increase in pancreatic cancer.

Let’s address both of these.

1) http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/56008/title/Journal_retracts_flawed_study_linking_MMR_vaccine_and_autism


2) http://cebp.aacrjournals.org/content/current pg#447

Kondratiev Waves

An explanation:

In this paper, it is claimed that the effective causality of long-term macroeconomic rhythms, most commonly referred to as long waves or Kondratieff waves, is founded in our biological realm. The observed patterns of regularity in human affairs, manifest as socioeconomic rhythms and recurrent phenomena, are constrained and codetermined by our natural human biological clocks, themselves the result of instructions impressed in the human genome and human cognitive capacity by the physical regularity of fixed cosmic cycles. Considering that a long wave can be conceived as an evolving learning dissipative structure consisting of two successive logistic structural cycles, an innovation cycle and a consolidation cycle, and applying considerations from population dynamics, chaos theory and logistic growth dynamics, a Generational-Learning Model is proposed that permits comprehension of the unfolding and time duration of the phenomenon. The proposed model is based on two kinds of biological constraints that impose the rhythm of collective human behavior - generational and cognitive. The generational consist of biologically based rhythms, namely, the Aggregate Virtual Working Life Tenure and the Aggregate Female Fecundity Interval, both subsets of the normative human life span or human life cycle. The cognitive consist of a limiting learning growth rate, manifest in the alternating sequence of two succeeding learning phases, a new knowledge phase and a consolidation phase. It is proposed that the syncopated beats of succeeding effective generational waves and the dynamics of the learning processes determine the long-wave behavior of socioeconomic growth and development. From the relationship between the differential and the discrete logistic equations, it is demonstrated that the unfolding of each structural cycle of a long wave is controlled by two parameters: the diffusion-learning rate and the aggregate effective generation t_G, whose product maintained in the interval 3<t_G<4 (deterministic chaos) grants the evolution and performance of social systems. Moreover, it is speculated that the triggering mechanism of this long-term swinging behavior may result from the cohesion loss of a given technoeconomic system in consequence of reaching a threshold value of informational entropy production.

This is a bit complicated, but I have noticed that this article in wikipedia has been changed several times in the last month or so (more attention focused on it for obvious reasons). I believe these kondratiev waves are real and that they correspond with the human lifespan not the 2 generations cited in wikipedia. They correlate with the human lifespan in this way: humans live a certain amount of time and society is a collection of humans which are demographically divided to young, middle, old. The lessons taught by the old (elders) to the new generations are lost when they die and therefore history is to repeat itself. This may be a key part of the equation for the recent and ongoing economic crisis. The question is can technology dampen or perhaps even eliminate these economic fluctuations. If people use it like we do, then probably, but most people don't (as addressed in a previous article by Taggart). So we may continue to see these economic cycles for years to come. Also, the artificiality of markets may play a role which I can't yet comment on (as in, power centers may influence markets to create boom-bust cycles or potentiate them at least as this would mean quite a bit of profit for those power centers).

1) Devezas, Tessaleno. A wikipedia article. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tessaleno_Devezas

2) Devezas T.C.¹; Corredine¹ J.T. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 68, Number 1, September 2001 , pp. 1-57(57)http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/els/00401625/2001/00000068/00000001/art00136"

Visualization

I noticed one of my co-workers was having trouble typing. He looks at the keyboard when he types and his overall speed is low. I told him about how when I was in high school and wanted to improve my typing speed I used what I learned recently is called 'visualization'. This is where you picture yourself doing a task in your mind and it turns out the motor neurons actually used in that task light up in brain studies. Gymnasts use it now apparently (1)


1) Winston, Robert. The Human Mind, a documentary. BBC. Viewed at http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/the-human-mind/

Jonas Salk

I was aware of his work with polio (per med school and college and high school) and then was reminded of him in Michael Moore's Capitalism, but did not know anything of his philosophy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonas_Salk

I would recommend reading this article in its entirety before discussion, at which point I'll try to find a book which covers him.

Rosh was wrong about the gays!?

Utah scientists hard at work:
http://videos.howstuffworks.com/sciencentral/696-reversing-sexual-orientation-video.htm

We know from embryology that we all start out as women (see SRY gene for more details) so the line between heterosexuality and homosexuality is fuzzy from the beginning. Also recall Ron White's standup where he says he prefers porno where the guy has a big throbbing $#%@ instead of a small one. There's a bit of woman in each man and probably a bit of man in each woman.

Rosh's argument was that homosexuality is a choice. It almost certainly isn't a (conscious) choice. What's interesting here is that even if it's largely genetic, it may be changeable through gene manipulation. And then this becomes an ethical question: would we want to change the genetics of babies before they are born (which would actually be the mother/father) to favor heterosexuality? Let's discuss this aspect of the nematode experiment.



Also, what's up with that scientist's hair? I didn't think that sort of hair was allowed in Utah.




Note: Labeled under human science even though experiment was carried out on pseudocoelomates.

Book Review: Who's Your City

Who's Your City?: How the Creative Economy Is Making Where You Live the Most Important Decision of Your Life

Author
Richard Florida

Date of Publication
2007

Reason for reading
My roommate had Florida's 2002 book in his favorite books (on Facebook). I read the background of the author and then read the book at the bookstore and have now ordered it on amazon.

Genre and/or Themes
Environment and psychology, society (public vs private collaboration), systems and networks

Author Background
Richard Florida is a professor at the University of Toronto and does research social theory and economies. He has a PhD. from Columbia and worked at the George Mason University School of Public Policy and at Carnegie Mellon's I-school (information school). He seems like a decent person but it's hard to say - his temperament is even (from what I've read of how he responds to his criticism) but again my data here is too limited to draw any meaningful conclusions.

Synopsis
This is the best book I've ever read on networks (and the only one outside of my business classes). The last and greatest utility of man that has not been replaced by computers is innovation and creativity. Our economies are now reflecting this but not in a homogenous fashion. Certain parts of the country (and world) "have more spikes" according to Florida. The creative output is higher in places you may have already guessed: San Francisco, Boston, Pittsburg/Chicago beltway etc. Florida believes (and has large data to support) the thesis that creativity is the valued commodity and certain regions are better than others for those who want to exploit this.

Review
At the level of the idea, this is not entirely new. It synthesizes what we already had intuited and presents the information in a way that is more scientific but I'd argue quasi-scientific (which doesn't normally bother me but some of his assumptions appear to be false). The book is broken into four parts. Why Place Matters is the first section detailing Florida's "mega-regions". I would like to direct you to this article by Florida: http://www.bnet.com/2403-13070_23-193140.html which gives the data on the mega-regions. Are you wondering if Minneapolis is one of the regions? It does not make his top 10. A megaregion must meet three key criteria. First, it must be a contiguous, lighted area with more than one major city center. Second, it must have a population of 5 million or more. Finally, it must produce more than $100 billion in goods and services. By that definition, there are some 40 megaregions in the world.
Historical Context: David Ricardo and Adam Smith analogy - these mega regions of 2009 would equal Ricardo's "nation-state." Ricardo and Smith both seem to borrow this term for more classical thought. If we recall, Socrates describes nation-state in The Republic. I'd postulate every civilization has had its version of a nation-state. See the wikipedia article for more information (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation_state) Also, these ideas have been in science fiction. Futuristic concepts of what cities actually can become (think Judge Dread sp).

I remember in college looking at this picture:
http://members.wolfram.com/billw/images/earth_lights.jpg

This appears to be the impetus for Florida and his research team. "The use of light footprints to define megaregions produces a precise and complex boundary to each region." He and colleauges then combine this and cross-analyze with other metrics such as traffic density and GDP by region. He goes onto to say that Thomas Friedman was wrong about the world becoming flat (flat here means that technology basically connects us all and gives everyone equal opportunities for financial success). Minneapolis falls into the Chi-Pitts megaregion. This is very interesting because about 2 weeks ago I remember listening to an MPR piece on creating a high-speed railway between Minneapolis and Chicago and then I found this just now: http://correspondents.theatlantic.com/richard_florida/2009/05/mega-regions_and_high-speed_rail.php

The highspeed railway does not look to be built anytime soon (in short, too much opposition from existing mass transit authorities and employees eg bus, plane).

Section 2 deals with how the individual will respond to this (assuming part one is true). There will be greater opportunities to the person who can not just move to the economic megaregions but remains mobile in mindset. Those who are rooted to one area will find more economic hardship basically.

In Section 3 Florida explains the results by linking the dominant forms of employment in the areas with the personality traits: manufacturing regions require people who are agreeable (follow rules) and conscientious (work with dangerous machinery), openness comes from areas with high immigrant populations, and extroversion from areas with management headquarters and sales related jobs. Florida finds that his Gay and Bohemian Index, which connected gay and artistic communities to high growth and wealth generation areas, is actually a proxy for regions with large concentrations of the openness personality trait.

Florida is taking a lot of liberties in this part of the book but making the argument that culture of a city contributes to its economic success is hard to make with pure data alone. Part of it is going to have to be subjective and I'm willing to buy this idea. But, referring to psychological profiling, I'd simply say open-mindedness in culture begets open-mindedness is the economy of ideas (and ultimately financial power).

Section 4 is about how you personally respond to this information. I'll simply cut and paste from wikipedia (as their treatment is as good as mine or better since I don't know how to make tables in the blog-composer):

The final part of the book, Where We Live Now, suggests that the average life has three big moves: when leaving a parent's home, when starting a family, and when retiring (or when children move out). When youth leave their home (or when they leave college), those who can move away, choose to locate in areas that offer attractive job markets, cultural or recreational amenities, and rank high in quality of life factors. When they get married or have children, people are choosing areas that are perceived as safe and family-friendly. Florida suggests using a Trick-or-Treater Index, do parent feel safe allowing their children to go door-to-door on Halloween; or Catherine Austin Fitts's Popsicle Index, how far are parents willing to allow their children to walk to buy a treat. Once retired, or when kids leave home, the parents tend to gravitate towards similar areas as young people, but in quieter neighborhoods. They desire opportunities for hobbies or a second career and proximity to grandchildren. The final chapter lists five factors to consider before choosing a location to reside followed by a 10 step plan to help people choose. The five factors to consider are (1) short and long term career goals (2) importance of being physically close to family and friends (3) desirable lifestyle options (e.g. access to beaches, water bodies, mountains, etc.) (4) locating close to similar personality types, and (5) current life stage. The ten step plan is outlined below:

Florida's ten-step plan to help narrow the field and make a decision on where to live

	Description of step	Notes
1	Get your priorities straight	Write down preferences, including the grand and trivial.
2	Generate a short-list	The previous step should rule out many locations and identify suitable broad regions.1
3	Do your homework	Collect information on each potential location by doing research, such as reading local newspapers or asking questions of local residents.2 considering leadership or direction of officials, social values of people or organizations, and aesthetics of the place.
4	What do they offer?	Assess and rank the potential locations by local economic conditions, especially with respect to jobs, professional development, and networking opportunities.
5	Getting the basics right	Assess and rank the potential locations by educational facilities, safety, health care, housing, transportation and other similar services.
6	Does the place get it?	Assess the potential locations by the initiatives that political and community leaders have been taking
7	Values check	Assess the potential locations by the predominant social values displayed by residents and organization, especially in attitudes towards tolerance, trust, and self-expression.
8	Come on city, light my fire	Assess and rank the potential locations by recreational, cultural and aesthetic interests.
9	Tally it up	From these rankings, weigh the pros and cons of the short-listed places and decide which place fits best.
10	Go there	Before committing, visit the decided upon location first. Choose the location that meets expectations upon a visit.

Problems with the logic:

Richard throws into the Creative Class almost everybody and groups them in two categories: the Super Creative Core and the "creative professionals". These two groups include: scientists, professors, poets, novelists, artists, entertainers, actors, designers, architects, non-fiction writers, editors, cultural figures, researchers, analysts, programmers, engineers, filmmakers, financial services, legal and health care professionals, business management and the list goes on.

I of coure do not think (actually I KNOW) that health care professionals are not in his creative class. Physician-scientists are, but just barely. And the argument for financial services needs to be stronger. Of course, whoever controls the capital controls the people (labor supply), but the average financial service person is doing nothing creative; he's just making money. The Federal Reserve and central banks however, have a lot of control (arguably the most). Politicians you note, are left out. This is very interesting and leads me to my addition to this book.

If you can recall Sim City, then this will make perfect sense, if not then it won't. Politicians actually are not like the nerve-center deciders that they should be. They seem more to play games where they protect themselves first and worry about resources/people second. Keep in mind, no formal training is required to be a mayor but he still gets to handle the resources. I am forced to ask the question of whether this kind of governance will work in the future. If the society is truly democratic, then if it's possible I believe adults will have to live three lives: the life of their specialization and job (the ant function), their family life (especially if they decide to have kids), and their societal job (sim city function). As has been discussed here already, we do not seem to have democracy. The assumption for this model changes to take into account the kind of democracy we do have and we find that while the rest of the society is evolving and adapting to technology, politics is not. I'd like a focus of our discussion to be whether this is dangerous and incompatible with the current society.

Quotes
I'd simply say to look at the images I've provided and the additional reading (figures and tables sections). This is better than any quote I could give you to aid your memory.

Additional Reading:

http://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/userfiles/prosperity/File/Rise.of.%20the.Mega-Regions.w.cover.pdf

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/Images/earth_lights_lrg.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.maximizingprogress.org/2008_01_01_archive.html&usg=__DqUg-3lKlzNkjb2fPMmY9ugjgfg=&h=1200&w=2400&sz=535&hl=en&start=22&sig2=TNzrH1rLKUjx1hRzKxYSJg&um=1&tbnid=o6sBlhky9YpPhM:&tbnh=75&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dearth%2Blight%26ndsp%3D20%26hl%3Den%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26sa%3DN%26start%3D20%26um%3D1&ei=tk7TSt3qFqKyNNKPgZUD

::Cough Cough Sneeze::

"What are the mid-range and long-term outlooks for production and distribution of the U.S. influenza vaccine supply?

Both the mid–term and long-range outlooks for the U.S. influenza vaccine supply appear very positive. Six companies are currently licensed to produce influenza vaccine in the U.S. market (sanofi pasteur, Inc., MedImmune Vaccines Inc., Novartis Vaccines, CSL Biotherapies, GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals, and ID Biomedical Corporation), many of whom are working to expand their production capacities." (1)

MedImmune was acquired by AstraZeneca in 2007, (2) ID Biomedical was acquired by glaxo in 2005. (3)

Pay attention to the fear propagated in the news and you could get rich (see graph above of glaxosmithkline stock since flu scare in march of this year).

1) Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Supply and Distribution in the United States, Center for Disease Control Webs

2) AstraZeneca to acquire MedImmune for $58 per share in a fully recommended, all-cash transaction with a total enterprise value of $15.2 billion, MedImmune Corp Website

07/04/23/astrazeneca-to-acquire-medimmune-for-58-per-share-in-a-fully-recommended-all-cash-transaction-with-a-total-enterprise-value-of-15-2-billion

3) GlaxoSmithKline To Acquire ID Biomedical Corporation, Pharmaceutical Processing Web

Binaral Rivalry between the Nostrils and in the Cortex

(Wen Zhou and Denise Chen)

I am sure you have heard of left or right eye dominance. I recently I actually found out about left and right ear dominance (apparently the left ear is great at background noise and the right ear is great at conversational noise). Now a new study published in Current Biology (August 20, 2009) shows that our nostrils compete for cortex attention just like our eyes and ears. When opposing scents were applied to the two nostrils the brain did not incorporate them into one smell but rather chose one to recognize.

From now on I will carry some mint leaves or cinnamon in my pocket and if I come across a terrible smell I will just reach for them and hope my brain chooses the right smell to accept.

Time Magazine Article on Consciousness

By Steven Pinker. I am largely unfamiliar with his work other than to say he refutes Noam Chomsky's universal theory of grammar. Has any of you read his works?

This article is provocative and we should discuss it. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1580394-7,00.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memetics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memetics

I'd like to discuss Memetics. Of all the things presented in God Delusion, this was the most original to me (but apparently has been a field of study for 30+ yrs now). It's very easy to understand if you think of brains as computers. Some information is easily programmable and thus easily passed on while other information is more difficult to code and thus less likely to evolve on any wide scale. There are broad and important implications to this work in my opinion. I need to read more books by more modern memeticists. But let's discuss this.

Kessler and The End of Overeating

Remember when this guy was on Bill Maher?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jF4EoLa7l78

Why is the potential firestorm that this guy wants (against the food industry), not the same as it was in the 90s with the cigarette companies and nicotine? I had this discussion at work today and one of the doctors brought up a really good point.

Decisions

A 2004 report by Jennifer Lerner, Ph.D. published in Psychological Science explores the effects of overshoot emotion on decision making (Hearth Strings and Purse Strings: Carryover effects of emotions on economic decisions.) Briefly, half the individuals were given an object and then asked how much they would sell it for. The other half of participants were shown an object and asked whether they would like to receive the object or its monetary value. The study concluded that anger decreased selling prices and choice prices; while sadness reduced selling prices and increased choice prices. For example, if you are anger you will sell something cheaper than its actual worth and are less willing to buy something. If you are sad you will pay more for that piece of chocolate to make you feel better than if you were not sad.

Question to the Blog:
The implications of this are obvious in financial and non-financial circumstances. Can self-actualizing compensate this genetic framework?
Knowing that these processes are at work with someone you enter into a competitive dialogue with, how can you avoid eliciting these emotions to maintain an objective argument (both for yourself and other individual)?